The XXX Effect

My wife and I often joke about the XXX effect (where XXX is our last name). For years, it has seemed that we can arrive at any store or event and the premises are nearly deserted. But, and this is a big but, within seconds of our arrival there is a crowd and or line behind us. Thus the XXX effect is where we arrive and the crowds follow. Given that we have a rather common last name, it could be cited as an instance of keeping up with the XXX's.

There is a second more ominous XXX effect that seems to follow us as well. If an important event in our life happens in a building, the building is not long for this world. For example, the hospital where I was born was torn down and the site is now an apartment building,  the grade school I attended was torn down years ago and city hall now sits on the property, the school I attended for junior high was torn down and the site is now occupied by an industrial building, the chapel of the church where we were married burned down shortly after our ceremony, etc. The list goes on and on. We tell people not to suggest that we have any important event in their building. After all you know what could happen.

All the cited instances of XXX effects are examples of the coincidence effect in action. You will note that my narrative left out all the events that didn't fall into the pattern I expostulated. The coincidence effect is also known as subjective validation . Stripped of some of the psychobabble, it simply means that one's personal beliefs lead to the attribution of a relationship between two or more events even when careful scientific examination shows no relationship.

Much so called "paranormal phenomena" is the result of such attribution. I have often felt bad for serious psychoscientists because they invariably get cornered by people convinced that subjective validation has disclosed the secrets of the universe to them. It can be very hard to change a persons beliefs, even in the face of hard evidence to the contrary. It can be even harder to show them how their own beliefs lead to a bias in interpretation of the facts. It can make party conversation interesting, but it has never been shown to illuminate any new great truth. Oh well. That's probably why I am a physical scientist at heart.